Although the global semiconductor cycle into the "winter", but the power semiconductor segment track is still growing steadily, not only Infineon and other international power semiconductor leaders in the latest financial quarter performance improved and raised the 2023 fiscal year performance outlook, and in the frontier silicon carbide field to expand the Chinese supply chain "circle of friends", for the experience of Tesla "carbon reduction" storm silicon carbide industry injected a booster.
Securities Times reporter ·e company reporter industry insiders learned that the current from photovoltaic to new energy vehicles, silicon carbide downstream market demand is still strong, especially automotive grade silicon carbide substrate production capacity is still tight, domestic silicon carbide is accelerating from industrialization to commercialization. At the same time, the cost of domestic silicon carbide will accelerate the decline this year, and the competition of low-end products is fierce, and the technology gap with international giants needs to be accelerated.
The trend of industrial demand remains unchanged
Since 2021, Tesla has started to use silicon carbide devices on the main drive inverter, and with higher system efficiency, silicon carbide starts the "on-board" process. However, at the investor day event in March this year, Tesla said that the power train of the next generation of vehicle platforms will reduce the use of silicon carbide by 75%, which is "a pot of cold water" to the entire industry. Despite this, the silicon carbide industry has not stopped.
Recently, international power semiconductor giant Infineon expanded the silicon carbide material supplier system and signed domestic silicon carbide substrate head manufacturers Tianyue Xinjin and Tianke Heda. In the view of the industry, its importance is considered by the industry to be comparable to the consumer list manufacturers into the "Apple industry chain".
"The ability to supply Infineon demonstrates the progress in technology and production capacity of domestic silicon carbide substrates." Jibang consulting compound semiconductor analyst Gong Ruijiao told reporters that regardless of market demand or the expansion trend of international giants, silicon carbide, especially high-end automotive silicon carbide products, is still in a high boom.
There are domestic head silicon carbide manufacturers told reporters: "We are currently no excess silicon carbide production capacity to supply, although Tesla shouted 'carbon reduction', but the use of silicon carbide increased year by year and did not reduce market demand." According to reports, the company's products have been supplied to overseas head power device manufacturers.
In the silicon carbide industry chain, the value of silicon carbide substrate and epitaxial sheet account for more than half, and become the key to determine the quality of silicon carbide devices, the market by the United States Wolfspeed (Kerui Company), Coherent (the original II-VI Company) and Japan Roma and other manufacturers monopoly. Silicon carbide substrate single crystal materials can be divided into conductive substrate and semi-insulating substrate. Among them, the conductive substrate is mainly used in the field of silicon carbide power electronic devices such as electric vehicles, new energy and energy storage.
The contract of Infineon's Tianyue Advanced, in the transition from semi-insulated guide electric substrate layout, the new Shanghai factory last year has completed the first stage of mechanical and electrical installation, is expected to achieve mass production delivery in the first half of this year. Last year, the company signed long-term agreements with a number of well-known customers in the field of automotive electronics and power electronic devices at home and abroad.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, this year's international silicon carbide giant expansion enthusiasm. In addition, automotive manufacturers have not given up silicon carbide cooperation and program innovation.
This year, BMW, polar Krypton and ON reached a long-term supply agreement for silicon carbide, Wolfspeed and Mercedes also reached a silicon carbide device supply cooperation; In April, XOPeng officially launched a new generation of technology platform SEPA 2.0, which adopts a global 800V high-voltage silicon carbide platform with a comprehensive efficiency of 92%. Nezha GT is equipped with 800V silicon carbide electric drive; Dongfeng Motor released the Mach E brand, which will be equipped with a self-developed silicon carbide controller, and will also mass-produce silicon carbide modules by the end of the year. Huawei also released the "DriveONE new generation of ultra-converged gold power platform", equipped with efficient silicon carbide technology.
"Silicon carbide is an advanced technology, in addition to Tesla, most car companies currently use less, the future will continue to increase the use of silicon carbide, rather than reduce." Zhang Xiang, visiting professor of the Yellow River Institute of Science and Technology, told reporters that silicon carbide has the characteristics of high temperature resistance and high pressure resistance, which is very suitable for high pressure scenarios, and in the main inverter, silicon carbide module and IGBT module can improve the system efficiency of about 5%.
According to some silicon carbide manufacturers, it is understood that Tesla's 75% carbon reduction plan is mainly for the production line of the next generation of low-end models, and the traditional production line will not reduce the amount, so the overall net increase in the use of silicon carbide is expected to increase by 25%.
Jibang Consulting statistics in the first quarter of this year, domestic such as BYD Han EV, Weilai ET7, Xiaopeng G9, Geely Smart Genie #1 equivalent production models are equipped with silicon carbide devices, domestic suppliers including BYD, STAR semiconducting and core energy, accelerated the development of silicon carbide power modules in the domestic market. In addition, mainstream car companies at home and abroad have been laying out 800V platforms.
IDM commercialization is progressing rapidly
In the current power semiconductor market, silicon-based IGBT and silicon carbide two paths diverge from each other, respectively serving the low-end and high-end new energy markets due to cost differences; In the Tesla "carbon reduction" wind, the two paths are also expected to intertwine.
Executives of domestic IGBT giant Times Electric recently said in an institutional survey: "The company urgently needs new IGBT production capacity to alleviate the excessive market demand." According to reports, Tesla recently released a new program to determine the direction of significantly reducing silicon carbide, and many car manufacturers are also developing new programs with the company, which may increase the application of silicon-based IGBT.
Despite the potential diversion of silicon-based IGBT, the development trend of silicon carbide industry is difficult to "reverse".
"The gradual substitution of silicon carbide for silicon-based IGBTs is irreversible," Zhou Xiaoyang, president of Core Energy, pointed out during the recent power and compound semiconductor Forum activities that there is no way to solve the shortage of silicon carbide in the main drive of the car for a period of time, so it is necessary to consider using some silicon-based IGBT to replace silicon carbide, or to adopt hybrid modules, or to improve the power density of silicon carbide chips. Or carry out package innovation, electric drive system improvement and other programs.
Looking back, 2022 can be called a key year for domestic silicon carbide from industrialization to commercialization, listed companies frequently win orders, and IDM (design and manufacturing integration) manufacturers are particularly prominent.
As a LED chip giant, SAN 'an Optoelectronics performance fell last year, but the power electronics business represented by silicon carbide diodes, MOSFET and silicon-based gallium nitride products is progressing rapidly, and its silicon carbide vertical industry chain manufacturing platform Hunan SAN 'an achieved sales revenue of 639 million yuan, an increase of 9 times. The signed long-term purchase agreement for silicon carbide MOSFET amounts to more than 7 billion yuan, and the current production capacity of Hunan SAN 'an silicon carbide has reached 12,000 pieces/month, and the second phase of Hunan SAN 'an project will be completed this year, with an annual production capacity of 360,000 pieces.
From the shipment point of view, Hunan SAN An's silicon carbide diode cumulative shipments of more than 100 million leading the industry, has launched the fourth generation of high-performance products, and seven through the vehicle regulation certification and began to gradually ship. In addition, Hunan SAN An semiconductor sales deputy general manager Zhang Zhenrong previously introduced that the new energy vehicle power semiconductor into the volume period, SAN An for the main drive of silicon carbide power semiconductor is expected to be officially on the car in the fourth quarter of this year.
The silicon carbide products of China Resources Micro, another IDM enterprise, are progressing smoothly, and the overall sales scale of silicon carbide devices last year increased by about 2.3 times year-on-year, with orders to be delivered exceeding 10 million yuan, and the amount of film casting steadily increased month by month. The research and development work of cargo-grade silicon carbide MOS and silicon carbide module is progressing smoothly, and several samples of silicon carbide MOS module products have been completed. China Resources Micro to this year's wide band gap semiconductor target is the overall sales of hundreds of millions of yuan.
Shilanwei is also using the IDM model, and its Shilanming gallium has implemented the construction of the "silicon carbide power device chip production line" project last year, and is expected to form a monthly production capacity of 6,000 6-inch silicon carbide chips by the end of this year. In October last year, Shilanwei planned a non-public offering to raise 6.5 billion yuan, and one of the raised investment projects was for the "annual output of 144,000 silicon carbide power device production line construction project", and was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on April 26 this year.
In an interview with a Securities Times reporter earlier this year, Chen Xiangdong, chairman of Shilan Micro, introduced that by giving full play to the advantages of IDM integration, Shilan micro silicon carbide MOSFET/SBD power device chip pilot line is progressing smoothly, and the chip performance indicators have reached the industry-leading level; Silanwei is accelerating the construction of silicon carbide chip mass production line, and silicon carbide power modules for automotive main drive have been sent to some customers.
In the recent acceptance of institutional research, Time Electric executives said that silicon carbide is an important investment direction of the company's semiconductor business, the company in the existing production line to improve production capacity, hope that product developers can copy the IGBT previous development route, from the application direction to improve the level of devices, is expected to do some batch applications in some areas this year.
Accelerate binding wafer capacity
"The vertical integration of the whole silicon carbide industry chain is more suitable for the new energy automobile industry," Chen Dongpo, deputy general manager of Sanan Integration, pointed out when attending the power and compound Forum in April that the design and manufacturing of the car chip require high reliability, high stability, high safety, and the product declaration cycle is relatively long, while the IDM model can better control the quality, and can reduce costs and improve production capacity through system optimization, so as to achieve "turnkey" projects for car companies.
At present, listed companies represented by IDM model are making rapid progress in silicon carbide business, but it takes some time to fulfill orders. At present, the contribution of listed companies is limited, and it is difficult to resist the risk of cyclical fluctuations. In contrast, the performance of some power semiconductor design companies or discrete devices and module companies is relatively stable, and they give full play to their own advantages by building their own capacity or binding wafer capacity to form an "IDM-like" model and expand the silicon carbide track.
As A share IGBT leader, Star semi-conductor for two consecutive years to maintain double growth, last year the company achieved a net profit of about 800 million yuan, the first quarter of this year to achieve a net profit of about 200 million yuan, an increase of about 36%, and the company continued to layout silicon carbide circuit: In 2020, the company will invest about 200 million yuan to build the industrialization project of whole silicon carbide power module, and invest in the construction of an annual output of 80,000 cargo-grade whole silicon carbide power module production lines and R & D test centers; In 2022, the company will raise 3.5 billion yuan to invest in IGBT and silicon carbide chip projects. The latest development shows that the company's vehicle gauge SiC module began to be supplied in small batches in overseas markets, in addition, the vehicle gauge SiC MOSFET module using the company's own chip is expected to begin to be supplied in bulk to the main motor controller customer in 2023.
Some people close to star semiconducting introduced to reporters, from the power module packaging process, silicon carbide module packaging process requirements are higher than IGBT module requirements, Star semiconducting module packaging technology is facing new tests.
Macro Micro Technology said that it has mastered the key technology of silicon carbide device packaging. According to reports, the traditional process framework of brazing plus wire bonding technology is difficult to meet some special requirements; Silver sintering technology as an alternative to brazing technology, can better play the performance of silicon carbide devices, improve its power cycle life, more suitable for high temperature working environment. The company has mastered the relevant technology, and can be mass-produced in the relevant module packaging products.
Macro micro technology performance also ushered in a big outbreak, the first quarter of this year's net profit increased by 1.53 times. According to reports, the company has full orders, silicon carbide diodes successfully developed and achieved small batch supply. Company executives in the acceptance of institutional research introduced that the company launched the first generation of flat silicon carbide MOS in 2022~2023, and is expected to develop trench products in 2024~2025; Application scenarios, silicon carbide MOS products are mainly used in electric vehicles, silicon carbide diode products are used in the field of photovoltaic.
In addition, Yang Jie Technology adopts IDM and Fabless (fabless mode) in parallel to accelerate the construction of silicon carbide production capacity through multiple channels.
On April 20, Yang Jie Technology announced plans to invest 1 billion yuan in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, the construction of 6-inch silicon carbide wafer production line, planning production capacity of 5,000 pieces/month, the subsequent plan to further layout 6-8 inch silicon carbide chip production line construction. At present, Yangjie Technology has launched the silicon carbide module and 650V silicon carbide SBD, 1200V series silicon carbide SBD full range of products to the market, silicon carbide MOSFET has made key progress.
Yang Jie Technology also through the investment holding of Hunan Chu Micro Semiconductor, further improve the company's core capabilities in wafer manufacturing, forming a relatively complete wafer product manufacturing capacity. According to the plan, the second phase of the construction plan of Chu Micro Semiconductor is to add 30,000 pieces/month of 8-inch silicon-based chip production line project and 5,000 pieces/month of 6-inch silicon-based chip production line project.
In recent years, the silicon carbide industry has accelerated securitization. Among the new companies, the net profit of East Micro Semiconducting nearly doubled to 284 million yuan last year, and the net profit of the first quarter of this year increased by nearly 50%. Among them, the company achieved revenue for the first time in silicon carbide devices; Yandong's 6-inch silicon carbide SBD (Schottky Diode) products are in small batch mass production, and the first sample of 1200V silicon carbide MOSFET is in performance evaluation.
Competition intensifies and product upgrades
Under the background of the rapid growth of downstream application demand in domestic new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, industrial control, radio frequency communication and other fields, the technical level and market scale of silicon carbide industry chain are gradually growing. According to China International Capital Corporation, Huatai Securities and other research reports, the existing production capacity of domestic silicon carbide substrate is about 258,000 pieces/year ~ 400,000 pieces/year, the next 2 to 5 years, the domestic silicon carbide substrate production capacity is expected to reach 4 million pieces/year ~ 4.2 million pieces/year, is expected to achieve about 10 times more than the existing capacity of new production capacity growth.
However, compared with international silicon carbide players, the domestic silicon carbide supply chain also needs to face multiple risks and pressures such as technological gaps and accelerated cost decline.
Jibang Consulting compound semiconductor analyst Gong Ruijiao introduced that with 6-inch silicon carbide substrate as an example, the domestic yield is about 40%, and the overseas yield is about 60% to 70%; In addition, silicon carbide MOS is divided into plane class and groove class, under the same conditions, groove class has more cost and performance advantages, domestic products need to face a huge patent gap.
"From the perspective of downstream application scenarios, domestic silicon carbide products are mainly diodes and MOS products applied to the industrial market, and the main drive MOS is still being verified, and faces fierce competition." Gong Ruijiao said that with the intensive release of production capacity in the next two or three years, the supply and demand of the silicon carbide market will tend to balance.
Domestic head silicon carbide manufacturers told reporters that from the price point of view, silicon carbide substrate in addition to 2020 has not changed, has been declining; And this year, the domestic decline is about 10% to 20%, far more than the overseas market.
Compared with leading enterprises, silicon carbide substrate rookies are more likely to encounter "cold winter". Dongni Electronics announced in early January that it had received a large order of 6-inch silicon carbide, of which 135,000 pieces were delivered in 2023, with a sales amount of 675 million yuan, and the company's stock price rose once, but soon fell back. Industry insiders pointed out that this price is equivalent to about 5,000 yuan/piece, which is at a low level in the industry.
In 2021, Toni Electronics will invest an annual output of 120,000 pieces of silicon carbide project. For the latest progress of the project, Toni Electronics introduced in the annual report that in 2022, the company's silicon carbide substrate material has formed stage results and began to supply in small batches; However, the silicon carbide investment bank project is subject to high technical requirements, fast iteration, influenced by many factors such as research and development progress and downstream verification cycle, and there is uncertainty, and the project can reach production
